Growth Stock Selection
Time: 60-90 minutes Cost: $0 to learn (plus investment capital when ready) Platform: Ape AI (askape.com) + Your brokerage Best for: Investors seeking capital appreciation through fast-growing companies Companion: Maverick (for growth opportunities) + Money (for financial analysis)
What You'll Learn
By the end of this workflow, you'll be able to:
✅ Understand what growth investing is and why it can deliver outsized returns
✅ Identify high-growth companies using key metrics (revenue growth, TAM, market share)
✅ Evaluate if a growth stock's price is justified or overvalued
✅ Distinguish between quality growth and hype/bubbles
✅ Use Maverick to find emerging growth opportunities
✅ Build a growth-focused portfolio that balances risk and reward
✅ Manage the volatility that comes with growth investing
What is Growth Investing?
The Philosophy
Growth investing is buying stocks of companies that are growing revenues, earnings, and market share significantly faster than the overall market.
The Core Principle:
"Pay a fair price for exceptional growth. The compounding will reward you handsomely."
Unlike value investors who seek discounts, growth investors pay premium prices for companies with:
Exceptional growth rates (20-50%+ annually)
Large addressable markets (TAM)
Disruptive products or business models
Strong competitive advantages (moats)
Long runways for expansion
The Bet: If a company's earnings grow 30%/year for 10 years, a "high" P/E of 40 today will look cheap in retrospect.
Historical Performance
Why Growth Investing Works:
From 1927-2020, growth stocks outperformed value by ~30% in bull markets
Top tech companies (FAANG): 300-1,000%+ returns over decade
Amazon (1997-2023): +180,000% (turned $10k into $18 million)
Apple (2003-2023): +55,000% (turned $10k into $5.5 million)
Netflix (2002-2021): +41,000% (turned $10k into $4.1 million)
The Catch:
High volatility (50-80% drawdowns during bear markets)
Many growth stocks fail (Pets.com, WeWork, etc.)
Requires stomach for wild swings
Can underperform for years during value cycles
Famous Growth Investors:
Peter Lynch - Fidelity Magellan Fund, 29% annual returns for 13 years
Cathie Wood - ARK Invest, focused on disruptive innovation
Philip Fisher - Pioneered growth investing, influenced Warren Buffett
Thomas Rowe Price Jr. - Founded T. Rowe Price, focused on growth stocks
Growth vs. Value Investing
Focus
Fast-growing companies
Undervalued, established companies
Valuation
Willing to pay high P/E (30-100+)
Seek low P/E (<15)
Timeframe
3-10 years (let growth compound)
2-5 years (wait for revaluation)
Risk
High volatility, potential to overpay
Value traps, slow/no appreciation
Best Markets
Bull markets, low interest rates
Bear markets, high interest rates
Dividends
Rare (growth companies reinvest profits)
Common (mature companies pay out)
Examples
Tech, biotech, EVs, AI
Banks, energy, industrials, utilities
Both can work - this workflow focuses on growth.
Key Growth Investing Metrics
Metric #1: Revenue Growth Rate
Formula:
What to look for:
20%+ annually: Solid growth
30-50%+ annually: Exceptional growth
100%+ annually: Hyper-growth (often early-stage)
Example:
2023 Revenue: $500 million
2024 Revenue: $700 million
Growth = (($700M - $500M) / $500M) × 100 = 40%
Why it matters:
Revenue growth is harder to manipulate than earnings
Shows real customer demand for products/services
Leading indicator of future profitability
Important: Look for consistent growth (not one-time spike).
Using Maverick to Find High-Growth Revenue:
Metric #2: Earnings Growth Rate
Formula:
What to look for:
15%+ annually: Good growth
25%+ annually: Excellent growth
50%+ annually: Exceptional (may not be sustainable)
Example:
2023 EPS: $2.00
2024 EPS: $2.80
Growth = (($2.80 - $2.00) / $2.00) × 100 = 40%
Why it matters:
Shows the company is not just growing revenue, but converting it to profit
Indicates improving efficiency and operating leverage
Directly drives stock price appreciation
Note: Early-stage growth companies may not be profitable yet. That's OK if revenue growth is strong and path to profitability is clear.
Metric #3: PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings-to-Growth)
Formula:
What it means: Whether you're paying a fair price for the growth you're getting.
Example:
Stock has P/E of 40
Earnings growing at 50%/year
PEG = 40 / 50 = 0.8
Interpretation:
PEG < 1.0: Undervalued relative to growth (good buy)
PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued
PEG 1.0-2.0: Slight premium (acceptable for quality growth)
PEG > 2.0: Overvalued (paying too much for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"A fairly priced growth stock should have a PEG ratio of 1.0. Under 1.0 is cheap, over 2.0 is expensive."
Example Comparison:
Stock A:
P/E: 60, Growth: 30%, PEG: 2.0 → Expensive
Stock B:
P/E: 35, Growth: 40%, PEG: 0.875 → Good value for growth!
Stock C:
P/E: 25, Growth: 50%, PEG: 0.5 → Exceptional value!
Ask Money Monty:
Metric #4: Total Addressable Market (TAM)
What it means: The total market opportunity if the company captured 100% market share.
Why it matters:
A company with $1B revenue in a $5B market has limited upside (already 20% share)
A company with $1B revenue in a $500B market has huge runway (only 0.2% share)
Example:
Stripe (payments): TAM ~$2 trillion (global payments market)
Airbnb (lodging): TAM ~$1.8 trillion (global travel/hospitality)
Shopify (e-commerce): TAM ~$5 trillion (global e-commerce)
What to look for:
TAM should be at least 10× current revenue (room to grow)
Ideally 50-100× current revenue (massive runway)
Growing TAM is even better (market itself expanding)
Example:
Company has $500M revenue
TAM is $50 billion
Currently 1% market share
If they reach 10% share (realistic for category leader) → $5B revenue (10× growth)
Ask Maverick:
Metric #5: Rule of 40
Formula:
What it means: A simple test for sustainable growth in software/SaaS companies.
Rule:
≥ 40: Excellent (healthy balance of growth and profitability)
30-40: Good (acceptable)
< 30: Poor (either too slow growth or too unprofitable)
Example 1 (High Growth, Low Profit):
Revenue growth: 50%
Profit margin: -5% (losing money)
Rule of 40: 50 + (-5) = 45 ✅ (Acceptable, growth justifies losses)
Example 2 (Moderate Growth, High Profit):
Revenue growth: 15%
Profit margin: 30%
Rule of 40: 15 + 30 = 45 ✅ (Acceptable, profitable and growing)
Example 3 (Slow Growth, Unprofitable):
Revenue growth: 10%
Profit margin: -15%
Rule of 40: 10 + (-15) = -5 ❌ (Red flag! Slow growth AND losing money)
Best used for: SaaS, cloud software, subscription businesses
Ask Money Monty:
Metric #6: Customer/User Growth
What to track:
Number of active users (for consumer apps)
Number of paying customers (for B2B)
Customer retention rate (% of customers who stay)
Net Dollar Retention (revenue from existing customers over time)
Example:
Spotify: 220M users (2020) → 615M users (2024) = 180% growth
Shopify: 1M merchants (2019) → 4.4M merchants (2024) = 340% growth
Why it matters:
Revenue growth often follows user growth
High user growth = product-market fit
Shows momentum and adoption
What to look for:
User/customer growth ≥ revenue growth: Healthy (monetization may improve later)
User growth < revenue growth: Mixed (growing revenue per user, but slowing adoption)
Accelerating user growth: Exceptional (hitting inflection point)
Ask Maverick:
The Growth Stock Selection Process
Step 1: Identify Growth Themes and Sectors
Top Growth Sectors (Historically):
1. Technology:
Cloud computing (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud)
Software-as-a-Service (Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow)
Cybersecurity (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks)
Semiconductors (NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC)
E-commerce (Amazon, Shopify, MercadoLibre)
2. Healthcare/Biotech:
Gene therapy (CRISPR, Vertex)
Weight loss drugs (Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly)
Medical devices (Intuitive Surgical)
Health tech (Teladoc, Dexcom)
3. Consumer Discretionary:
Electric vehicles (Tesla, Rivian)
Streaming (Netflix, Disney+)
Sports betting/gaming (DraftKings, Flutter)
4. Clean Energy:
Solar (First Solar, Enphase)
Wind (Vestas, Orsted)
Energy storage (Tesla, Fluence)
EVs and charging infrastructure
5. Fintech:
Digital payments (PayPal, Block/Square)
Buy-now-pay-later (Affirm, Klarna)
Crypto exchanges (Coinbase)
Neobanks (SoFi, Chime)
Using Maverick to Find Emerging Themes:
Step 2: Screen for Growth Candidates
Using Maverick for Growth Screening:
Alternative: Thematic Growth Screen:
Step 3: Deep Dive on Top Candidates
From the screening, pick 5-7 stocks for deeper analysis.
Questions to Ask Money Monty:
Step 4: Evaluate the Growth Narrative
The Story Should Make Sense:
Every great growth stock has a compelling narrative:
Amazon (2000s): "E-commerce will replace physical retail"
Netflix (2010s): "Streaming will replace cable TV"
Tesla (2010s-2020s): "EVs will replace gas cars"
NVIDIA (2020s): "AI will transform every industry"
Ask yourself:
Is the trend real and sustainable? (Not just hype)
Is the TAM large enough? (Can support 10× growth)
Does this company have a sustainable advantage? (Or will competition crush margins?)
Can they execute? (Strong management, proven track record)
What's the bear case? (Why might this fail?)
Using Maverick to Validate the Narrative:
Step 5: Check Valuation (Avoid Overpaying)
Growth stocks can be expensive, but there are limits.
Red Flags (Overvaluation):
❌ P/E over 100 (unless hyper-growth like 100%+ revenue growth)
❌ P/S over 20 (paying 20× annual sales)
❌ PEG over 3.0 (paying 3× too much for growth)
❌ Market cap bigger than realistic revenue potential (in 10 years)
❌ Stock up 500%+ in 12 months with no fundamental change
Example of Overvaluation (2021 Bubble):
Rivian IPO: $100B market cap, $0 revenue
Snowflake: P/S of 100+ (paying 100× sales)
Many SPACs: Trading at 10-20× projected revenue (years away)
Result: Most crashed 70-90% in 2022.
Green Flags (Fair Valuation for Growth):
✅ PEG under 2.0
✅ P/S under 15 (for high-growth SaaS)
✅ P/E under 50 (for profitable growth companies)
✅ Reasonable path to 3-5× revenue in 5-10 years
✅ Market cap is < 20% of TAM
Ask Money Monty:
Step 6: Assess Management Quality
Great growth companies need great leaders.
What to look for:
✅ Founder-led companies:
Founders often have longer-term vision
More willing to sacrifice short-term profits for long-term growth
Examples: Bezos (Amazon), Musk (Tesla), Zuckerberg (Meta), Huang (NVIDIA)
✅ Insider ownership:
Management owns significant stock (>5% of company)
Aligned incentives (they win when shareholders win)
Less likely to make short-sighted decisions
✅ Track record of execution:
Consistently hit or beat guidance
Successfully launched new products
Scaled the business effectively
✅ Capital allocation skills:
Smart acquisitions (not overpaying)
Investing in R&D and growth
Not wasting money on stock buybacks when stock is overvalued
Red Flags:
❌ High executive turnover:
CEO or CFO changes multiple times in 3 years
Signals internal problems
❌ Insider selling:
Executives selling large portions of stock (>50%)
May indicate they think stock is overvalued
❌ Overpromising, underdelivering:
Consistently miss guidance
Announce big initiatives that never materialize
Lost credibility with investors
Ask Maverick:
Building a Growth Portfolio
Portfolio Construction Principles
1. Diversification Across Growth Stages:
Mature Growth (40% of portfolio):
Large-cap companies (>$50B)
Consistent 15-25% growth
Profitable with strong cash flow
Lower risk, lower upside
Examples: Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, Visa
Mid-Stage Growth (40% of portfolio):
Mid-cap companies ($5B-$50B)
25-50% growth
Approaching profitability or recently profitable
Moderate risk, moderate upside
Examples: CrowdStrike, Datadog, Shopify, DraftKings
Early-Stage Growth (20% of portfolio):
Small-cap companies ($1B-$5B)
50-100%+ growth
Often unprofitable (investing for growth)
High risk, high upside
Examples: Depends on market (emerging companies)
Why this allocation?
40% mature = stability and steady growth
40% mid-stage = sweet spot (growth + manageable risk)
20% early-stage = moonshot potential (but limited downside)
2. Sector Diversification:
Don't put all your growth bets in one sector.
Example Allocation:
35% Technology (cloud, software, semiconductors)
25% Healthcare/Biotech (drugs, devices, health tech)
20% Consumer Discretionary (e-commerce, streaming, EVs)
10% Financials (fintech, payments)
10% Clean Energy / Other Themes
Why? If one sector crashes (like tech in 2022), you're not wiped out.
3. Position Sizing:
Conservative:
10-15 stocks
Each position: 5-10% of portfolio
Max position: 10%
Moderate:
15-20 stocks
Each position: 4-7% of portfolio
Max position: 10%
Aggressive (concentrated):
8-12 stocks
Each position: 7-12% of portfolio
Max position: 15%
Rule: Never let a single stock exceed 20% of your portfolio (even if it grows to that size, trim and rebalance).
Sample Growth Portfolio ($10,000)
Strategy: Balanced growth with diversification
Mature Growth (40% = $4,000):
10% Microsoft (MSFT) - Cloud + AI = $1,000
10% Apple (AAPL) - Services growth + ecosystem = $1,000
10% Visa (V) - Digital payments = $1,000
10% Alphabet (GOOGL) - Search + Cloud + AI = $1,000
Mid-Stage Growth (40% = $4,000):
10% CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Cybersecurity = $1,000
10% Shopify (SHOP) - E-commerce platform = $1,000
10% DraftKings (DKNG) - Sports betting = $1,000
10% Datadog (DDOG) - Cloud monitoring = $1,000
Early-Stage Growth (20% = $2,000):
7% SoFi (SOFI) - Fintech = $700
7% Rivian (RIVN) - EV maker = $700
6% [Your pick: emerging AI/biotech/clean energy company] = $600
Portfolio Characteristics:
Blended revenue growth: ~25-30% (weighted average)
Mix of profitable and unprofitable (investing for growth)
Diversified across sectors
Mix of established (MSFT, AAPL) and emerging (SOFI, RIVN)
Expected Performance:
Bull market: 25-40% annual returns
Bear market: -30% to -50% drawdowns
Long-term (10 years): 15-20% annualized (if you can stomach volatility)
Alternative: Growth ETF Portfolio
For hands-off growth exposure:
Allocation:
50% QQQ (Invesco QQQ ETF) - Nasdaq-100, tech-heavy growth
30% ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) - Disruptive innovation
20% VONG (Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth) - Broad growth
Pros:
Instant diversification (100+ stocks)
Professional management (especially ARKK)
Lower single-stock risk
Easy to manage
Cons:
Can't outperform (just match the growth indices)
Higher fees for ARKK (0.75% vs. 0.20% for QQQ)
Less control over holdings
Best for: Investors who want growth exposure but don't want to pick individual stocks.
Managing Growth Stock Volatility
Expect Wild Swings
Growth stocks are VOLATILE.
Historical Drawdowns (Peak to Trough):
Netflix (2011): -80% (over 12 months)
Tesla (2019): -60%
NVIDIA (2018): -50%
Amazon (2000-2002): -95%
Entire Nasdaq (2000-2002): -78%
Entire Nasdaq (2022): -33%
All of these recovered and went on to new highs (eventually).
The Reality:
20-30% pullbacks are NORMAL in growth stocks
40-50% pullbacks happen every few years
60-80% crashes happen during major bear markets
You MUST be able to stomach this to invest in growth.
How to Stay Calm During Volatility
1. Don't Check Prices Daily:
Growth stocks swing 5-10% per day on no news
Daily checking = emotional roller coaster
Check weekly or monthly instead
2. Focus on Fundamentals, Not Price:
Is revenue still growing?
Is the user base still expanding?
Is the long-term thesis intact?
If YES: Price drops are noise (or buying opportunities) If NO: Thesis broken, consider exiting
3. Use Volatility to Your Advantage (Buy the Dip):
Strategy: Keep 10-20% cash to deploy during crashes
Example:
You own $9,000 in growth stocks + $1,000 cash
Market crashes 30%
Your $9,000 portfolio → $6,300
Deploy $1,000 cash at 30% discount
Total: $7,300 (vs. $7,000 if fully invested)
Bonus: When it recovers, you bought more shares cheap.
4. Set Stop-Losses for Disaster Scenarios:
Conservative approach:
Set stop-loss at 40-50% below purchase price
If stock drops that much, fundamentals likely broken
Exit and redeploy to better opportunity
Example:
Buy at $100
Stop-loss at $50
If it hits $50, auto-sell
Prevents 90% wipeouts (like Pets.com, WeWork, etc.)
Note: Only use for your highest-risk positions (early-stage growth). Don't use for mature growth stocks (they can recover).
5. Rebalance After Big Moves:
Scenario:
Start with $1,000 each in 10 stocks
One stock (Stock A) 5× in 2 years → now $5,000
Other 9 stocks flat → still $9,000 total
Total portfolio: $14,000
Stock A is now 35% of portfolio (risk!)
Action:
Trim Stock A from $5,000 to $1,500 (sell $3,500)
Reallocate $3,500 to other positions or new opportunities
Lock in gains, reduce concentration risk
Rule: If any stock grows to >20% of portfolio, trim to 10-15%.
Growth Investing Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake #1: Chasing Hype (FOMO)
The Trap:
Stock is up 300% in 6 months
Everyone talking about it (Reddit, Twitter, CNBC)
You buy at the top out of FOMO
Stock crashes 70% in next 6 months
Real Examples:
GameStop (2021): $500 → $40 (-92%)
Zoom (2020): $588 → $70 (-88%)
Peloton (2020): $162 → $8 (-95%)
The Fix:
Never buy a stock just because it's "hot"
Wait for pullbacks (20-30% dips) to establish positions
Ask yourself: "Would I buy this if nobody was talking about it?"
Using Maverick to Avoid Hype:
Mistake #2: Ignoring Profitability Path
The Trap:
Company growing revenue 100%/year but losing money
You assume "they'll figure out profitability later"
Years pass, still unprofitable, cash running out
Stock collapses
Real Examples:
Uber (unprofitable for 10+ years, finally profitable 2023)
WeWork (never achieved profitability, collapsed)
Many 2020-2021 SPACs (still burning cash, stocks down 80-90%)
The Fix:
Ask: "How and when will they become profitable?"
Check cash burn rate vs. cash on hand (runway)
Look for improving unit economics (gross margins)
If no clear path to profitability in 3-5 years, avoid
Check with Money:
Mistake #3: Overconcentration
The Trap:
You find one growth stock you love
Put 30-50% of portfolio in it
Stock crashes 60%
Your entire portfolio down 20-30%
Example:
50% in Tesla (2021)
Tesla drops 70% (2022)
Portfolio down 35%
Takes years to recover
The Fix:
Max 10-15% per stock
15-20 stocks minimum for growth portfolio
Even your "highest conviction" pick: Max 15%
Mistake #4: Falling in Love with Stocks
The Trap:
You bought a stock and it's done well
You're emotionally attached
Stock becomes overvalued (PEG > 3, P/E > 80)
You refuse to trim/sell
Stock crashes, you give back all gains
The Fix:
Have sell disciplines:
Trim when PEG exceeds 3.0
Trim when position exceeds 20% of portfolio
Sell if fundamentals deteriorate
Remember: You married your spouse, not your stocks
Mistake #5: Panic Selling During Corrections
The Trap:
Market corrects 20-30%
Your growth stocks down 40-50%
You panic sell to "stop the bleeding"
Market recovers, you miss the rebound
Example:
Sell growth stocks in March 2020 COVID crash
Miss the 100%+ recovery over next 12 months
The Fix:
Don't sell on price alone
Ask: "Have the fundamentals changed?"
If thesis intact: Hold or buy more
If thesis broken: Then sell
Use Sage for Perspective:
Using Maverick for Growth Investing
Best Prompts for Finding Growth Stocks
Weekly Growth Screen:
Emerging Theme Screen:
Breakout Stock Finder:
Growth Analysis Prompts
Complete Growth Assessment:
Comparison for Growth Stocks:
Growth Investing Success Stories
Case Study #1: Amazon (1997-2023)
Initial Investment Thesis (1997):
E-commerce will replace physical retail
Started with books, expanding to everything
Revenue growing 800%+ annually
Unprofitable but investing for long-term
Valuation at IPO:
Price: $18/share
Market cap: ~$400M
P/E: N/A (unprofitable)
P/S: ~8× (seemed expensive!)
The Journey:
2000-2002: Crashed 95% ($100 → $5) during dot-com bust
Many sold, assuming it would fail
Revenue kept growing 20-40%/year
Eventually profitable (2003)
Expanded to cloud (AWS), Prime, devices
Results:
2023 price: ~$3,200/share (split-adjusted)
Return: 180,000%+
$10,000 → $18 million
Lessons:
Great growth stories take decades to play out
Unprofitability early is OK if path is clear
Volatility is the price of admission (-95% drawdown!)
Long-term winners compensate for all the losers
Case Study #2: Netflix (2002-2021)
Initial Thesis (2002):
DVD-by-mail disrupting Blockbuster
Subscription model (recurring revenue)
Growing 50%+ annually
Small TAM initially (just DVD rentals)
Pivot to Streaming (2007):
Saw streaming as future of entertainment
Massive TAM (replace cable TV)
Invested billions in content
Revenue accelerated to 30-50%/year
The Volatility:
2011: Crashed 80% ($300 → $53) after price increase backlash
Most investors sold
Company recovered, kept growing
2021 peak: $700/share
Results:
2002-2021 return: 41,000%+
$10,000 → $4.1 million
Lessons:
Best growth companies pivot and evolve (DVD → Streaming)
80% drawdowns are survivable if fundamentals intact
TAM expansion unlocks next growth phase
High conviction required to hold through volatility
Case Study #3: NVIDIA (2015-2024)
Initial Thesis (2015):
Dominant in gaming GPUs (60% market share)
Expanding to data centers
Revenue growing 15-25%/year (solid but not spectacular)
Inflection Point (2016-2017):
GPUs perfect for AI/machine learning
Data center revenue accelerating
New TAM: $1 trillion (AI infrastructure)
AI Boom (2022-2024):
ChatGPT launches, AI explodes
NVIDIA chips essential for AI training
Revenue growth: 100-200%+ annually
Became key picks-and-shovels play for AI
Results:
2015 price: ~$5/share (split-adjusted)
2024 price: ~$140/share
Return: 2,700%+ in 9 years
$10,000 → $280,000
Lessons:
TAM expansion = growth re-acceleration
"Picks and shovels" plays (sell to gold miners) can be best growth bets
Market leadership + new technology = explosive growth
Even "mature" companies can become growth stocks again
Success Checklist
By the end of this workflow, you should have:
🎉 Congratulations! You've learned how to identify and invest in the next generation of market leaders!
What's Next?
Now that you've mastered growth stock selection:
Related Workflows:
Value Investing with Sage - Balance growth with value
Sector Allocation Strategy - Diversify across sectors
Rebalancing Your Portfolio - Manage winners and trim
Monthly Portfolio Review - Track growth metrics
Understanding Stock Fundamentals - Deepen analysis
Continue Learning:
Read "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch (growth investing classic)
Study FAANG earnings reports (learn how growth companies report)
Follow growth investors on Twitter/X (Cathie Wood, ARK Invest research)
Join growth investing communities (r/stocks, r/investing on Reddit)
Practice:
Run weekly growth screens using Maverick
Analyze 1-2 growth stocks per week
Paper trade growth positions before using real money
Track earnings releases for your holdings
Remember: Growth investing requires conviction, patience, and tolerance for volatility. The rewards can be life-changing, but you must be able to stomach 30-50% drawdowns without panicking.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." — Warren Buffett
Your future self will thank you! 🚀📈💰
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