Value Investing with Sage
Time: 60-90 minutes Cost: $0 to learn (plus investment capital when ready) Platform: Ape AI (askape.com) + Your brokerage Best for: Investors seeking undervalued companies with long-term potential Companion: Sage (for value analysis and strategy) + Money (for financial metrics)
What You'll Learn
By the end of this workflow, you'll be able to:
✅ Understand what value investing is and why it works
✅ Identify undervalued stocks using key metrics (P/E, P/B, P/S)
✅ Calculate intrinsic value to determine if a stock is "on sale"
✅ Distinguish between value traps and genuine opportunities
✅ Use Sage to find value stocks that match your criteria
✅ Build a value-focused portfolio from scratch
✅ Understand the patience required for value investing success
What is Value Investing?
The Philosophy
Value investing is buying stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic (true) worth. Think of it as shopping for $100 bills selling for $60.
The Core Principle:
"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." — Warren Buffett
The market sometimes misprices stocks due to:
Short-term bad news (temporary problem, not permanent)
Sector-wide sell-offs (baby thrown out with bathwater)
Lack of attention (boring companies nobody talks about)
Fear and panic (emotional selling)
Value investors exploit these mispricings by buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy.
Historical Performance
Why Value Investing Works:
From 1927-2020, value stocks outperformed growth stocks by ~3% annually
$10,000 invested in value stocks (1927) = ~$90 million (2020)
Same amount in growth stocks = ~$30 million
Fama-French research shows "value premium" persists across decades
Famous Value Investors:
Warren Buffett - Turned $10,000 into $300+ billion using value principles
Benjamin Graham - Father of value investing, mentor to Buffett
Charlie Munger - Buffett's partner, focused on "wonderful companies at fair prices"
Seth Klarman - Baupost Group, 20%+ annual returns for 40 years
Value vs. Growth Investing
Focus
Undervalued, established companies
Fast-growing companies regardless of price
Metrics
Low P/E, P/B, P/S ratios
High revenue/earnings growth rates
Timeframe
Patient (2-5+ years for revaluation)
Can be shorter (riding momentum)
Risk
Value traps (cheap for a reason)
Overvaluation (paying too much)
Best Markets
Bear markets, recessions
Bull markets, economic expansions
Examples
Banks, industrials, energy
Tech, biotech, emerging sectors
Neither is "better" - both have their place. This workflow focuses on value.
Key Value Investing Metrics
Metric #1: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
Formula:
What it means: How many dollars you pay for each $1 of earnings.
Example:
Stock trades at $100
Company earns $5/share (EPS)
P/E = $100 / $5 = 20
Interpretation: You're paying $20 for every $1 of annual earnings.
What's "Low"?
S&P 500 average: 15-20 historically
Value territory: P/E of 10-15
Deep value: P/E under 10
Expensive: P/E over 25
Important Notes:
Compare P/E to industry peers (not just absolute number)
Tech companies often have higher P/E (30-50+) - that's normal
Banks/industrials typically have lower P/E (8-15)
Negative P/E = company is losing money (avoid for value investing)
Using Sage to Find Low P/E Stocks:
Metric #2: Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
Formula:
What is Book Value?
Company's total assets minus total liabilities
What shareholders would get if company liquidated today
Also called "equity" or "net worth"
Example:
Stock trades at $50
Book value per share is $40
P/B = $50 / $40 = 1.25
Interpretation: Stock trades at 1.25× its book value.
What's "Low"?
P/B under 1.0: Trading below book value (potential bargain)
P/B 1.0-3.0: Reasonable for most companies
P/B over 3.0: Expensive (paying big premium over book value)
Best Used For:
Banks and financial institutions (assets are mostly cash/securities)
Manufacturing companies (lots of physical assets)
Real estate companies
Less Useful For:
Tech companies (assets are intangible: software, patents, brand)
Service businesses (value is in people/processes, not physical assets)
Example Value Screen:
Metric #3: Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio
Formula:
What it means: How much you're paying for each dollar of the company's sales.
Example:
Company has market cap of $10 billion
Annual revenue is $5 billion
P/S = $10B / $5B = 2.0
Interpretation: Paying $2 for every $1 of sales.
What's "Low"?
P/S under 1.0: Very cheap (often undervalued or distressed)
P/S 1.0-2.0: Value territory
P/S 2.0-5.0: Fair to moderately expensive
P/S over 5.0: Expensive (growth premium)
Why It's Useful:
Works for unprofitable companies (unlike P/E)
Harder to manipulate than earnings
Good for cyclical industries (earnings vary, but sales more stable)
Best Used For:
Retail companies
Airlines and transportation
Cyclical industrials
Early-stage companies (not yet profitable but generating revenue)
Metric #4: PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth)
Formula:
What it means: Whether the P/E ratio is justified by the company's growth rate.
Example:
Stock has P/E of 20
Earnings growing at 25% annually
PEG = 20 / 25 = 0.8
What's "Good"?
PEG under 1.0: Undervalued (growth justifies or exceeds P/E)
PEG around 1.0: Fairly valued
PEG over 2.0: Overvalued (paying too much for growth)
Why It's Better Than P/E Alone:
A stock with P/E of 30 might be cheap if earnings are growing 40%/year
A stock with P/E of 10 might be expensive if earnings are declining
Example: Company A: P/E = 15, Growth = 5%, PEG = 3.0 (expensive!) Company B: P/E = 25, Growth = 30%, PEG = 0.83 (undervalued!)
Company B is the better value despite higher P/E.
Metric #5: Dividend Yield
Formula:
Why Value Investors Love Dividends:
Provides income while waiting for stock to appreciate
Dividend-paying companies tend to be stable (can't fake cash payments)
Forces companies to be disciplined with capital
High yield can indicate undervaluation
Value Investor's Dividend Sweet Spot:
3-6% yield: Solid income + reasonable safety
Above 6%: Investigate carefully (could be distressed)
Below 2%: Not really a value play (unless growth is high)
Warning Signs:
Yield doubled overnight = stock crashed (why?)
Payout ratio over 100% = dividend likely to be cut
Dividend hasn't grown in 5+ years = stagnant business
The Value Investing Process
Step 1: Screen for Value Candidates
Using Sage for Initial Screening:
Prompt Template:
Example Screen (Conservative Value):
What Sage Will Provide:
List of 10-15 stocks matching your criteria
Current valuation metrics for each
Brief business description
Reasons why the stock might be undervalued
Any red flags to investigate further
Step 2: Deep Dive Analysis (Pick Top 3-5)
From Sage's list, pick 3-5 stocks that interest you most. Now dig deeper.
Questions to Ask Money Monty:
What Money Will Analyze:
Complete financial picture with trends
Comparison to historical valuation and peers
Specific reasons for current undervaluation
Potential catalysts for stock appreciation
Risk factors and red flags
Clear buy/hold/avoid recommendation
Step 3: Calculate Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value = What the stock is actually worth (independent of current price)
There are several methods. Here's the simplest for beginners:
Method 1: P/E-Based Valuation
Formula:
Example:
Company earns $5/share (EPS)
Historical average P/E is 15
Industry average P/E is 18
Conservative fair P/E estimate: 15
Intrinsic Value = $5 × 15 = $75/share
Current price: $50 Margin of Safety: ($75 - $50) / $75 = 33%
If margin of safety is 25%+, it's a buy candidate.
Ask Sage to Calculate:
Method 2: Dividend Discount Model (For Dividend Stocks)
Formula:
Example:
Stock pays $3/year dividend
You require 10% return
Dividend has grown 5%/year historically
Intrinsic Value = $3 / (0.10 - 0.05) = $3 / 0.05 = $60
Current price: $45 Margin of Safety: ($60 - $45) / $60 = 25%
Ask Sage:
Method 3: Ask Sage for Multiple Valuation Methods
Step 4: Identify the "Why It's Cheap" Reason
Every undervalued stock is cheap for a reason. Your job: Determine if it's temporary or permanent.
GOOD Reasons (Temporary - BUY):
✅ Sector-wide sell-off:
Example: All bank stocks down 20% due to rate fears
Company fundamentals unchanged
Market overreacting to macro news
✅ Short-term earnings miss:
Company missed quarterly earnings by 2%
Long-term growth story intact
Stock sold off 15%+ on overreaction
✅ Cyclical downturn:
Industry in temporary slump (housing, commodities, travel)
Company has strong balance sheet to weather it
Will recover when cycle turns
✅ Boring/unloved sector:
Nobody talks about it (utilities, industrials, consumer staples)
Steady earnings, just not "sexy"
Market ignores it, creating value
✅ Spin-off or restructuring:
Company spun off from parent
Forced selling by index funds
Fundamentals improving but market hasn't noticed
BAD Reasons (Permanent - AVOID):
❌ Dying business model:
Example: Declining revenue for 3+ years
Technology disruption (Blockbuster vs. Netflix)
Can't adapt to market changes
❌ Unsustainable debt:
Debt-to-equity ratio over 2.0
Interest payments eating into profits
Risk of bankruptcy
❌ Management problems:
CEO scandal, fraud, incompetence
High executive turnover
Consistently poor capital allocation
❌ Permanent competitive disadvantage:
Competitors have better products/tech
Losing market share year after year
No moat, no differentiation
❌ Secular decline:
Entire industry shrinking (newspapers, landline phones, coal)
No amount of good management can fix
Fighting against inevitable trends
Ask Sage to Diagnose:
Step 5: Check for Margin of Safety
Margin of Safety = The gap between intrinsic value and current price
Benjamin Graham's Rule:
"Only buy stocks trading at least 25-30% below intrinsic value."
Why It Matters:
Protects you if your valuation estimate is wrong
Provides cushion against unexpected bad news
Gives room for stock to appreciate to fair value
Example:
Intrinsic value estimate: $100
Required margin of safety: 30%
Maximum buy price: $70
Current price: $65 ✅ (35% margin - GOOD) Current price: $75
❌ (25% margin - BORDERLINE) Current price: $85
❌ (15% margin - WAIT)
Conservative Approach:
30%+ margin = Strong buy
20-30% margin = Buy if high conviction
10-20% margin = Watch and wait
<10% margin = Pass
Step 6: Look for Catalysts
Catalyst = An event that could trigger the market to re-rate the stock
Common Catalysts:
Earnings surprise: Company beats estimates after quarters of misses
New CEO/management: Activist investor or turnaround expert comes in
Asset sale: Company sells underperforming division, unlocks value
Dividend increase: Signals management confidence, attracts income investors
Buyback announcement: Company buying back shares (reduces supply, increases EPS)
Sector rotation: Investors rotating back into unloved sector
Analyst upgrade: Major bank initiates coverage with "Buy" rating
Inclusion in index: S&P 500 addition forces funds to buy
Ask Sage:
Important: Don't require a catalyst to buy (value can be unlocked slowly), but having one increases odds of timely revaluation.
Building a Value Portfolio
Portfolio Construction Principles
1. Diversification (Essential):
Minimum 10-15 stocks
Spread across 5+ sectors
No single stock over 10% of portfolio
Mix of deep value, moderate value, and "value with catalysts"
Why? Value investing has higher single-stock risk. Diversification protects against value traps.
2. Patience (Critical):
Value stocks can take 2-5 years to be re-rated
Don't expect quick gains
Measure success in years, not months
Dividend income helps you wait
3. Rebalancing:
When a stock reaches intrinsic value (or above), consider trimming/selling
Redeploy proceeds to new undervalued opportunities
Don't fall in love with stocks - be willing to sell when fairly valued
Sample Value Portfolio ($10,000)
Allocation Strategy:
40% Deep Value (P/E <10, P/B <1.0) - Higher risk, higher potential return
40% Moderate Value (P/E 10-15, P/B 1.0-2.0) - Balanced
20% Value ETF (Diversification backstop)
Example Holdings:
Deep Value (40% = $4,000):
10% Bank of America (BAC) - $1,000
10% Ford (F) - $1,000
10% Citigroup (C) - $1,000
10% Vale (VALE) - $1,000
Moderate Value (40% = $4,000):
10% CVS Health (CVS) - $1,000
10% Walgreens (WBA) - $1,000
10% AT&T (T) - $1,000
10% Pfizer (PFE) - $1,000
Value ETF (20% = $2,000):
20% Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) or iShares Russell 1000 Value (IWD) - $2,000
Portfolio Characteristics:
Blended P/E: ~11
Blended P/B: ~1.3
Average dividend yield: ~4.2%
Annual dividend income: ~$420
Expected Performance:
Value stocks historically return 10-12% annually long-term
With dividends reinvested: ~12-14% potential
Requires 3-5 year holding period for full revaluation
Alternative: 100% Value ETF Portfolio
For hands-off investors:
Allocation:
50% VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) - Large-cap value
30% VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF) - Small-cap value (higher return potential)
20% VYMI (Vanguard International High Dividend Yield) - International value
Pros:
Instant diversification (1,000+ stocks)
Low maintenance
Captures value premium automatically
Low fees (0.04-0.15% expense ratios)
Cons:
Can't outperform (just match value index)
Less control
Lower yields than hand-picked portfolio
Best for: Beginners who want value exposure without stock picking
Value Traps: What to Avoid
Value Trap = A stock that looks cheap but deserves to be cheap (or get cheaper)
Red Flag #1: Deteriorating Fundamentals
Warning signs:
Revenue declining 3+ consecutive years
Profit margins shrinking
Free cash flow turning negative
Increasing debt levels
Example:
Retail stock with P/E of 8 (looks cheap!)
But revenue down 15% last 3 years
Profit margins compressed from 10% to 3%
This is cheap for a reason - AVOID
Check with Money:
Red Flag #2: Unsustainable Dividend
Warning signs:
Payout ratio over 100% (paying more than earning)
Dividend hasn't grown in 5+ years (frozen = trouble)
Free cash flow doesn't cover dividend
Recently cut dividend
Example:
Stock yields 8% (looks attractive!)
Payout ratio is 120%
Dividend likely to be cut soon
When cut, stock will crash further - VALUE TRAP
Check with Money:
Red Flag #3: Cheap But Getting Cheaper
Pattern:
Stock has low P/E for years
Keeps getting cheaper
"Dead money" - just sits there declining
Example:
3 years ago: P/E of 10, stock at $50
2 years ago: P/E of 9, stock at $40
1 year ago: P/E of 8, stock at $30
Today: P/E of 7, stock at $25
This is not value - it's a failing business!
Check with Sage:
Red Flag #4: Heavy Debt Load
Warning signs:
Debt-to-equity ratio over 2.0
Interest coverage ratio under 3× (earnings barely cover interest payments)
Debt coming due soon (refinancing risk)
Example:
Company has $10B in debt
Only earns $500M/year (20× debt-to-earnings)
If rates rise or business weakens, could face bankruptcy
VALUE TRAP despite low P/E
Safe Debt Levels:
Debt-to-Equity under 1.0 = Very safe
1.0-2.0 = Manageable
Over 2.0 = Risky (investigate carefully)
Check with Money:
Red Flag #5: Accounting Red Flags
Warning signs:
Frequent restatements of earnings
Complex accounting (hard to understand)
Auditor changes or disputes
Large discrepancies between reported earnings and cash flow
Rule: If you can't understand the financials, don't invest.
Check with Sage:
Using Sage for Value Investing
Best Prompts for Finding Value Stocks
Weekly Value Screen:
Value + Catalyst Screen:
Turnaround Opportunities:
Value Analysis Prompts for Individual Stocks
Complete Value Assessment:
Peer Comparison for Value:
Value + Quality Screen:
Patience: The Value Investor's Superpower
Why Value Investing Requires Patience
The Reality:
Value stocks can take 2-5 years to be re-rated by the market
Sometimes longer (7-10 years for deep value)
You'll often be "wrong" for 1-2 years before being proven right
Your portfolio may underperform during bull markets
Why Most People Fail at Value Investing:
They sell too soon (give up after 6 months of underperformance)
They chase performance (switch to growth stocks during rallies)
They lack conviction (didn't do enough research to hold through volatility)
They need excitement (value investing is boring by design)
Warren Buffett's Wisdom:
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
How to Stay Patient
1. Track Multiple Metrics, Not Just Price:
Don't obsess over daily stock price. Instead, track:
Quarterly earnings (are they growing?)
Revenue trends (improving or deteriorating?)
Debt levels (being paid down?)
Dividend payments and growth (increasing over time?)
P/E ratio compression (is it re-rating higher?)
Example:
Stock bought at $50 with P/E of 10
2 years later: Stock at $52 (only +4%)
But: EPS grew from $5 to $6.50 (+30%)
New P/E: $52 / $6.50 = 8 (even cheaper!)
Conclusion: Stock is MORE undervalued now, not less. Business improving, market hasn't noticed yet. HOLD (or buy more).
2. Collect Dividends While You Wait:
Many value stocks pay dividends. This makes waiting easier.
Example:
Buy stock at $50 with 4% yield
Year 1: Collect $2/share in dividends
Year 2: Collect $2.10/share (5% dividend growth)
Year 3: Stock re-rates to $65, collect $2.20/share
Total 3-year return:
Capital gain: $15 ($50 → $65)
Dividends: $6.30
Total: $21.30 on $50 investment = 42.6% (12.5% annualized)
Dividends cushion your wait and compound over time.
3. Maintain a "Value Journal":
When you buy a stock, write down:
Date purchased: [Date]
Price paid: $[X]
Investment thesis: Why is this undervalued? (2-3 paragraphs)
Intrinsic value estimate: $[Y]
Margin of safety: [%]
Expected holding period: [years]
What would prove me wrong: (Specific metrics or events)
Review quarterly:
Is the thesis still intact?
Have fundamentals improved, worsened, or stayed the same?
Has the margin of safety expanded or contracted?
This prevents emotional selling and keeps you focused on fundamentals.
4. Reframe "Underperformance" as "Opportunity":
When your value stocks underperform growth stocks:
Don't get discouraged
View it as an opportunity to buy more at lower prices
Remember: Mean reversion is powerful (what goes down often goes back up)
Historical Pattern:
1990s: Growth crushed value (tech boom)
2000-2009: Value crushed growth (tech bust, financial crisis)
2010-2021: Growth crushed value (tech boom 2.0)
2022-2024: Value outperformed (inflation, rate hikes)
Cycles repeat. Patience wins.
Value Investing Success Stories
Case Study #1: Warren Buffett and American Express (1960s)
Situation:
1963: American Express faced "Salad Oil Scandal" (fraud by subsidiary)
Stock crashed from $65 to $35 (-46%)
Market feared bankruptcy
Buffett's Analysis:
Core credit card business unaffected
Brand reputation intact (people still using Amex)
Trading at P/E of 10 vs. historical 20
Margin of safety: ~50%
Action:
Buffett invested $13 million (40% of his fund)
Held patiently while others panicked
Result:
5 years later: Stock at $180 (5× return)
Became one of Buffett's greatest investments
Held for decades, worth billions
Lesson: Temporary problems in quality companies create value opportunities.
Case Study #2: Financial Crisis (2008-2009)
Situation:
2008-2009: Financial stocks crashed 50-80%
Bank of America: $50 → $3
Citigroup: $55 → $1
Wells Fargo: $45 → $8
Market feared total collapse
Value Investor's Analysis:
Not all banks would fail (government wouldn't allow it)
Some had strong balance sheets (Wells Fargo, JPMorgan)
Trading at P/B ratios under 0.5 (below liquidation value)
50-70% margin of safety if they survived
Action:
Value investors (including Buffett) bought aggressively
Required conviction and courage
Many held cash waiting for this opportunity
Results (2009-2015):
Bank of America: $3 → $18 (6× return)
Citigroup: $1 → $50+ (50×+ return)
Wells Fargo: $8 → $55 (7× return)
JPMorgan: $15 → $70 (5× return)
Lesson: The best value opportunities come during maximum fear.
Case Study #3: Tobacco Stocks (2010s)
Situation:
2010-2020: Tobacco stocks unloved due to health concerns
Altria, Philip Morris: Consistent earnings, low P/E (8-12)
High dividend yields (6-8%)
Market assumed industry would die
Value Investor's Analysis:
Declining volume but pricing power intact
Shifting to reduced-risk products (vapes, heat-not-burn)
Massive free cash flow generation
Trading at 30-40% discount to fair value
Action:
Value investors accumulated positions
Collected 6-8% dividends while waiting
Reinvested dividends for compound growth
Results:
Altria: Total return ~200% over decade (with dividends reinvested)
Philip Morris International: ~150% total return
Massive dividend income along the way
Lesson: "Boring" or "unloved" industries can be excellent value plays.
Common Beginner Questions
Q: How long should I hold a value stock?
A: Until one of these happens:
Stock reaches intrinsic value (or above) → Consider selling
Fundamentals deteriorate permanently → Sell immediately
You find a better opportunity → Swap into better value
Thesis proves wrong → Exit and admit mistake
Minimum hold period: 2-3 years (value takes time to be realized) Average hold period: 3-7 years Buffett's hold period: "Forever" (for his best picks)
Q: What if the stock keeps dropping after I buy?
A: Ask yourself:
Have the fundamentals changed?
Is my thesis still intact?
Is the margin of safety now even larger?
If fundamentals intact: This is an opportunity to buy more (average down) If fundamentals deteriorating: Cut losses and exit
Q: Should I use value investing in a bull market?
A: Yes, but:
You'll likely underperform growth stocks during euphoric rallies
Stay disciplined (don't chase overvalued growth)
Use the time to accumulate positions while others chase momentum
When the cycle turns, you'll be glad you did
Q: How much of my portfolio should be in value stocks?
Aggressive value investor: 80-100% Balanced investor: 40-60% (rest in growth, index funds) Conservative beginner: 20-40% (learn while managing risk)
Start with 20-30% allocation, increase as you gain experience and conviction.
Q: Can I combine value and dividend investing?
A: Absolutely! They complement each other well.
Many value stocks pay dividends (financials, consumer staples, industrials)
Dividends provide income while waiting for revaluation
Focus on "value + yield" stocks (P/E <15, yield >3%)
Q: What sectors are best for value investing?
Historically value-rich sectors:
Financials (banks, insurance) - Often trade at low P/E and P/B
Energy - Cyclical, frequently undervalued during downturns
Industrials - Boring but steady, often overlooked
Consumer Staples - Defensive, sometimes undervalued during growth manias
Utilities - Slow growth, high dividends, often cheap
Less common (but possible):
Healthcare - Can find value in pharma during patent cliff fears
Materials - Cyclical, value opportunities during downturns
Real Estate - REITs sometimes trade below NAV
Usually NOT value sectors:
Technology - Typically growth-oriented (but exceptions exist)
Communication Services - Mixed (some value, some growth)
Success Checklist
By the end of this workflow, you should have:
🎉 Congratulations! You've learned the time-tested principles that have created more billionaires than any other investing strategy!
What's Next?
Now that you've mastered value investing basics:
Related Workflows:
Growth Stock Selection - Learn the opposite: buying growth at any price
Dividend Investing Strategy - Many value stocks pay dividends
Understanding Stock Fundamentals - Deepen your analysis skills
Monthly Portfolio Review - Track your value holdings
Rebalancing Your Portfolio - Sell when stocks reach fair value
Continue Learning:
Read "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham (the value investing bible)
Study Warren Buffett's annual letters (free on Berkshire Hathaway website)
Follow value investors on Twitter/X (find contrarian thinkers)
Join value investing communities (r/ValueInvesting on Reddit)
Practice:
Run weekly value screens using Sage
Analyze 1-2 value stocks per week
Paper trade value positions before using real money
Track your picks (even if you don't buy) to learn pattern recognition
Remember: Value investing requires patience, discipline, and independent thinking. You'll often be "wrong" in the short term before being proven right in the long term.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." — Warren Buffett
Your future self will thank you! 🚀📈
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